Iran vs Israel: The Untold Geopolitical Chess Game of the Middle East

June 24, 2025June 22, 2025 by PC

Share on Social Media

1. Iran vs Israel: Opening Gambit – Why This Matters Now

At the onset of mid‑June 2025, Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, initiating its most extensive coordinated air and drone strikes on Iranian military, nuclear, and leadership targets since 1979. Iran retaliated fiercely—turning this into a modern escalation with global stakes in nuclear policy, energy markets, and warfare tactics.

Iran vs Israel: The Untold Geopolitical Chess Game of the Middle East

2. Iran vs Israel : Anatomy of Strikes + New Intel

Phase One: Mossad deployed covert drones to disable Iranian air defenses, enabling F‑35s to strike over 250 targets—missile systems, centrifuge sites in Natanz, Isfahan, Tehran, and senior military figures
Phase Two: On June 17, Israel confirmed the elimination of Iran’s Chief of Staff, Ali Shadmani, along with other senior commanders 
U.S. Involvement: Operation Midnight Hammer on June 22, the U.S. joined the campaign, striking Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan with bunker‑buster bombs and cruise missiles—the first U.S. military action targeting Iranian nuclear facilities since 1979

3. Iran vs Israel: Iranian Counterpunch & Civilian Exodus

Iran launched 400+ drones and ballistic missiles, including cluster‑munitions warheads, targeting Tel Aviv, Haifa, Be’er Sheva—iron dome intercepted most 
Spiral of fear: Tens of thousands evacuated Tehran, a nationwide internet blackout declared—most intense since protests in 2019 
Casualty toll: Iranian state media reports over 430 killed and 3,500 wounded; Israeli side hit approximately 24 civilian fatalities, 240 wounded

4. Iran vs Israel: Strategic Shifts & Game Changers

Nuclear setback: U.S. strikes weakened Iran’s enrichment capacity; while Fordow remains buried, its centrifuges are damaged 
Leadership decapitation: Targeted blows against Shadmani tighten the disruption of Iran’s military coordination 
Hybrid warfare template: Fusion of covert drones, airstrikes, and special ops sets an emerging global playbook

5. Elevated Risks in Iran vs Israel

Escalation spiral: Netanyahu’s talk of “regime destruction” echoes Iraq 2003, raising full-scale war fears 
Proxy reactions: Hezbollah, Houthi groups vow attacks—Red Sea shipping and U.S. assets are now at risk 
Humanitarian toll: Over 450 civilian casualties in Iran; Israeli hospitals and residential areas hit, with evacuations ongoing 
Energy shockwaves: Attacks on gas fields near Isfahan/Tabriz have spiked oil prices ~15%  and also rising fears of Strait of Hormuz being closed.
The Strait of Hormuz is a crucial maritime passage handling 20% of global oil and gas transportation

6. U.S. Posture & Diplomacy in Iran vs Israel

Trump’s signal: Deployed B‑2 bombers to Guam; affirmed full control over Iranian skies, warned of “greater force” if Tehran retaliates 
Two‑week window: Trump has given Iran an ultimatum—“make peace or face further strikes”—while expressing bilateral coercive diplomacy 
Diplomatic moves: Geneva talks stalled; UN Security Council meets twice; countries like India, France, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt call for de-escalation

7. Expert & International Reactions

U.N. Secretary‑General Guterres: “Profoundly alarmed,” calls to avoid international spread of war 
European voices: G7 stress de‑escalation but reaffirm Israel’s defense rights 
Iran signals: Facing immense losses, nearing diplomatic openness—but insists the U.S. must stay out 
Strategic analysts: This conflagration marks a new frontier: covert–overt coordination, nuclear sabotage entwined with deep command disruption

8. What’s Next? Watch These Indicators

U.S. decision in two weeks: Will Trump launch full direct strikes?
Proxy escalation: Look for strikes in Lebanon, Red Sea region.
Negotiation prospects: Will Geneva talks survive battlefield dynamics?
Oil stability: Will major disruptions push crude above current 15% surge?
Civilian evacuation: Foreign mission withdrawals suggest persistent conflict.

9. Conclusion: A Turning Point in Iran vs Israel

What began as an Israeli initiative has escalated into a multinational hybrid-war campaign, with the U.S. now a combatant. With nuclear sites targeted, regional proxies activated, and oil markets rattled, the world is at a precarious junction. The next fortnight could determine whether this de-escalates via diplomacy—or descends into broader war.

Ceasefire in Effect (June 24)

On June 24, a U.S.-brokered ceasefire officially took hold: Israel confirmed acceptance, and Iran began standing down—with U.S. President Trump declaring the “12‑Day War” concluded. Although the truce is ongoing, Iranian missile strikes targeted U.S. forces at Qatar’s Al Udeid Air Base—interceptions prevented any damage—raising early concerns about ceasefire fragility 

Market & Global Reaction

Global markets responded immediately: oil prices dropped roughly 3%, with U.S. crude slipping to $66.80/barrel, while stock futures and Asian indexes surged . Russia issued a stark warning, calling the U.S. strikes a potential “Pandora’s box” that could edge the world closer to nuclear conflict 

Strategic Outlook

Iran has threatened closure of the Strait of Hormuz, pending Supreme Council approval—an action that would significantly disrupt global energy flows. Meanwhile, Washington and Israel are closely watching whether Tehran adheres to the ceasefire and whether Iran-backed proxies (Hezbollah, Houthis) escalate in the coming days.

Read: https://opinionjunction.com/the-new-age-tariff-war-how-us-china-trade-ten/

External Links – Iran-Israel Conflict 2025

Latest News Coverage

AP News – U.S. joins Israeli air campaign with strikes on 3 Iranian nuclear siteshttps://apnews.com/article/7ab46578cb56feecc16f4e4940a46e0a
The Guardian – Live: Iran-Israel conflict enters fifth day as US joins airstrikeshttps://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2025/jun/21/israel-iran-war-live-fresh-attacks-exchanged
The Times UK – Trump sets 2-week deadline as Iran faces wider attack window https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/trump-exit-ramp-from-war-iran-news-t83c72r2l
New York Post – Trump reveals location of Iran’s Supreme Leader, warns of action https://nypost.com/2025/06/17/us-news/trump-reveals-us-knows-where-irans-supreme-leader-is-hiding-but-wont-take-action-for-now-easy-target
The Economic Times (India) – Iran’s Chief of Staff Ali Shadmani killed in Israeli airstrikehttps://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/irans-war-time-chief-of-staff-ali-shadmani-eliminated-in-airstrike

In-Depth Analysis / Think Tanks

Brookings Institution – Strategic implications of U.S. engagement in the Iran-Israel conflict https://www.brookings.edu (search for “Iran Israel 2025”)
Atlantic Council – How the Middle East’s new war will reshape alliances https://www.atlanticcouncil.org
International Crisis Group – De-escalating the Israel-Iran confrontation https://www.crisisgroup.org